Fantasy Football Dilemma Is Drafting Josh Allen Or Lamar Jackson Too Soon?

When it comes to fantasy football, the quarterback position is always a hot topic of debate. In recent years, a new breed of quarterbacks has emerged, ones who possess the ability to not only throw the ball with precision but also run it with the speed and agility of a running back. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the most prominent examples of this new breed, and their dual-threat ability has made them fantasy football superstars. However, their early-round draft status has also created a dilemma for fantasy managers: Is drafting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson too soon?

The Allure of Dual-Threat Quarterbacks

The allure of dual-threat quarterbacks in fantasy football is undeniable. These players offer a unique combination of passing and rushing production, providing a high floor and a massive ceiling for fantasy points. A quarterback who can throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 75 yards and a touchdown in a single game is a fantasy manager's dream. This kind of production can be a weekly game-changer and can be the difference between winning and losing a matchup.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have consistently demonstrated this kind of upside. Allen, with his cannon arm and surprising rushing ability, has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in three of the past four seasons. Jackson, a former NFL MVP, has two top-three finishes in the past five years, thanks to his electrifying running style and improving passing skills. Their ability to contribute significantly in both passing and rushing categories makes them incredibly valuable assets in fantasy leagues.

The Case for Drafting Early

The case for drafting Allen or Jackson early in fantasy drafts is straightforward: scarcity and positional advantage. Quarterback is a position where the difference between the top players and the rest of the field can be significant. In many leagues, only the top 8-10 quarterbacks are considered reliable starters, making the elite options even more valuable. By securing one of these top-tier quarterbacks early, you gain a significant positional advantage over your opponents.

Positional scarcity plays a crucial role in this decision. While there are several serviceable quarterbacks available later in drafts, the chances of finding a player with the same ceiling as Allen or Jackson are slim. Waiting too long at the quarterback position could leave you scrambling for a viable starter each week or forcing you to stream quarterbacks based on matchups, which can be a risky proposition.

Drafting Allen or Jackson early also allows you to focus on other positions in the later rounds. Knowing you have a quarterback who can consistently score 20+ fantasy points per game allows you to be more flexible with your draft strategy. You can target running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends without the pressure of needing to address the quarterback position.

The Risks of Drafting Early

Despite the allure of these high-upside quarterbacks, there are risks associated with drafting them too early. The most significant risk is opportunity cost. Drafting Allen or Jackson in the first or second round means passing on potentially elite running backs or wide receivers. These are positions where depth is crucial, and securing top talent early can provide a significant advantage.

The opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback early is a key consideration. In the early rounds, you are looking for players who can be foundational pieces of your team, players who can consistently deliver top-tier production at their respective positions. While Allen and Jackson certainly fit that mold at quarterback, the running back and wide receiver landscape in fantasy football is often more volatile. Injuries and inconsistent performances can derail even the most promising players, making the elite options at these positions even more valuable.

Another risk to consider is the injury potential of quarterbacks, especially those who run frequently. Quarterbacks who take more hits are inherently more susceptible to injuries, and a significant injury to your early-round quarterback can derail your entire season. While Allen and Jackson have both been relatively durable throughout their careers, the risk is always present.

Analyzing Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

To make an informed decision about whether to draft Allen or Jackson early, it's essential to analyze their individual strengths, weaknesses, and potential risks.

Josh Allen: The Cannon Arm and Rushing Upside

Josh Allen has emerged as one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, thanks to his exceptional arm talent and surprising rushing ability. His ability to throw the ball deep downfield with accuracy and power makes him a constant threat to score big fantasy points. Allen's rushing ability adds another dimension to his game, as he can consistently pick up yards and touchdowns on the ground. Over the past few seasons, Allen has averaged over 500 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns per season, numbers that rival those of many running backs.

Allen's supporting cast in Buffalo is also a significant factor in his fantasy value. With star wide receiver Stefon Diggs as his primary target, Allen has a reliable receiver who can make plays in both the short and deep passing game. The Bills' offensive system, designed by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, is tailored to Allen's strengths, allowing him to make full use of his arm and legs.

However, Allen's aggressive playing style also carries some risks. He is known for taking hits and putting his body on the line, which increases his susceptibility to injuries. Additionally, Allen's turnover rate can be a concern at times, as he has a tendency to force throws into tight coverage. While these turnovers don't necessarily negate his fantasy value, they can lead to some inconsistent performances.

Lamar Jackson: The Electric Runner and Improving Passer

Lamar Jackson is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL, thanks to his incredible speed and agility. His ability to make defenders miss in the open field makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses. Jackson's rushing ability is his calling card, and he has twice rushed for over 1,000 yards in a season, a feat rarely accomplished by a quarterback.

In recent years, Jackson has also made significant strides as a passer. He has improved his accuracy and decision-making, making him a more complete quarterback. The Ravens have also made efforts to improve their receiving corps, adding players like Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers to provide Jackson with more weapons in the passing game.

Like Allen, Jackson's rushing style also makes him susceptible to injuries. He has missed games in each of the past two seasons due to injuries, which is a concern for fantasy managers. Additionally, Jackson's passing numbers can be inconsistent at times, especially when the Ravens' running game is struggling.

The Verdict: To Draft or Not to Draft?

So, is drafting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson too soon in fantasy football? The answer, as with most fantasy football questions, is it depends.

Ultimately, the decision of whether to draft Allen or Jackson early depends on your draft strategy, risk tolerance, and league settings. If you value positional advantage and are willing to take on some risk, drafting one of these quarterbacks in the first or second round can be a worthwhile gamble. However, if you prioritize securing top talent at running back and wide receiver, waiting on quarterback and targeting a solid option in the later rounds may be the more prudent approach.

Consider your league's scoring settings when making your decision. In leagues that heavily reward rushing production for quarterbacks, Jackson's value is even higher. Conversely, in leagues that penalize turnovers, Allen's risk profile may be slightly elevated.

Evaluate your draft position and the players available at each pick. If you are drafting in the back end of the first round, Allen or Jackson may be too difficult to pass up. However, if you are drafting in the middle rounds, you may find better value at other positions.

Assess your risk tolerance. If you are comfortable taking on some risk for the potential reward of a top-tier quarterback, drafting Allen or Jackson early may be a good move. However, if you prefer a more conservative approach, waiting on quarterback may be the safer option.

Conclusion

The decision of whether to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson early in fantasy football is a complex one with no easy answer. Both players offer immense upside due to their dual-threat ability, but they also come with some risks. By carefully considering the factors outlined in this article, you can make an informed decision that aligns with your draft strategy and risk tolerance. Remember, fantasy football is a game of calculated risks, and the key to success is making the decisions that give you the best chance of winning.

Ultimately, the choice is yours. Weigh the pros and cons, consider your league's dynamics, and trust your gut. Whether you decide to draft Allen or Jackson early, or wait on quarterback altogether, the most important thing is to enjoy the process and have fun.

• Is drafting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson too soon?

Fantasy Football Dilemma Drafting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson Too Soon?