Drafting Josh Allen Or Lamar Jackson In The Second Round Is It Too Early

As fantasy football enthusiasts gear up for their drafts, a perennial question looms large: when is the right time to snag an elite quarterback? In recent years, the position has witnessed a paradigm shift, with quarterbacks who possess rushing upside emerging as the gold standard. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, two of the most prominent examples of this dual-threat archetype, have consistently rewarded fantasy managers with their exceptional point-scoring capabilities. However, their lofty status in the fantasy landscape has sparked a debate – is it too early to draft them in the second round, or is the risk of missing out on their services worth the potential reward?

The allure of securing a top-tier quarterback like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson is undeniable. These quarterbacks offer a significant advantage over their counterparts due to their ability to contribute both through the air and on the ground. Their rushing prowess not only adds a substantial layer to their fantasy output but also provides a higher floor, making them less susceptible to the boom-or-bust nature that can plague pocket-passing quarterbacks. In essence, drafting Allen or Jackson is akin to acquiring two premium players in one roster spot, a notion that can be particularly enticing in leagues that reward quarterback scoring.

The Case for Drafting Early:

The primary argument for drafting Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round centers around the concept of positional scarcity. Elite quarterbacks, particularly those with rushing upside, are a finite resource in fantasy football. Waiting too long to address the position can leave you scrambling for less desirable options, potentially hindering your team's overall ceiling. By securing one of these quarterbacks early, you effectively lock in a significant advantage at the position, freeing you to focus on other areas of your roster in the subsequent rounds. Consider that in many leagues, the difference in projected points between the top-tier quarterbacks and the mid-range options can be substantial. This gap can be the difference between a playoff berth and an early exit, making the investment in an elite quarterback a worthwhile endeavor for many fantasy managers.

Furthermore, the demand for quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson often outstrips the available supply. Their dual-threat ability and high weekly ceilings make them coveted assets in fantasy drafts, leading to a rapid escalation in their draft price. If you wait until the third round or later, the chances of either player making it back to you diminish significantly. This fear of missing out, often referred to as FOMO, can drive fantasy managers to reach for these quarterbacks earlier than their consensus rankings might suggest. The rationale is simple: the opportunity cost of missing out on a potential league-winning quarterback outweighs the perceived risk of drafting them slightly ahead of ADP (Average Draft Position).

Another factor to consider is the impact an elite quarterback can have on your team's weekly consistency. Quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson offer a relatively stable floor due to their rushing ability, which provides a cushion even when their passing numbers are less than stellar. This consistency can be invaluable in head-to-head leagues, where weekly matchups are paramount. Knowing you have a quarterback who is likely to deliver a solid performance week in and week out can provide a significant edge over opponents who are forced to rely on the volatility of lesser quarterbacks.

The Case for Waiting:

However, the decision to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round is not without its drawbacks. The most prominent argument against this strategy revolves around the opportunity cost involved. Spending a premium draft pick on a quarterback means forgoing the chance to acquire a top-tier running back or wide receiver, positions that are often considered the foundation of a successful fantasy team. The running back and wide receiver landscape tends to be shallower than the quarterback pool, meaning that the drop-off in talent after the first few rounds can be more pronounced at these positions.

By prioritizing a quarterback early, you risk weakening your team at running back or wide receiver, potentially putting yourself at a disadvantage in terms of overall roster balance. This is particularly relevant in leagues that require you to start multiple running backs and wide receivers, as the depth at these positions becomes even more crucial. The argument here is that you can often find serviceable quarterback options later in the draft, while the opportunity to acquire an elite running back or wide receiver vanishes quickly.

Another consideration is the inherent risk associated with any high draft pick. Injuries are an unfortunate reality in the NFL, and the impact of a season-ending injury to a quarterback drafted in the second round can be devastating to your fantasy team. While injuries can occur at any position, the concentration of points at the quarterback position magnifies the potential consequences of losing your starter. This risk factor can make some fantasy managers hesitant to invest a premium pick in a quarterback, preferring instead to spread their risk across multiple positions.

Furthermore, the fantasy football landscape is constantly evolving, and the perceived value of certain positions can fluctuate from year to year. In recent years, the rise of dual-threat quarterbacks has elevated the position's importance in fantasy leagues. However, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue indefinitely. Rule changes, coaching philosophies, and the emergence of new talent can all influence the relative value of different positions. Some fantasy managers prefer to adopt a more flexible approach, adapting their draft strategy to the prevailing conditions rather than adhering to a rigid positional hierarchy.

Navigating the Decision: Factors to Consider

Ultimately, the decision of whether to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round hinges on a variety of factors, including your league's scoring format, roster requirements, and your personal risk tolerance. Before making a decision, it's essential to carefully evaluate your league's specific characteristics and your own draft philosophy.

• League Scoring Format: The scoring format of your league can significantly impact the value of quarterbacks, particularly those with rushing upside. In leagues that award extra points for rushing yards or touchdowns, quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson become even more valuable. Conversely, in leagues with less emphasis on rushing statistics, the advantage of drafting a dual-threat quarterback is somewhat diminished.
• Roster Requirements: The number of starting quarterbacks in your league also plays a crucial role in determining the position's overall value. In superflex leagues, where you can start a second quarterback in your flex position, the demand for quarterbacks is significantly higher, making it more justifiable to draft one early. In standard leagues, where you only start one quarterback, the opportunity cost of drafting one early is more pronounced.
• Personal Risk Tolerance: Your own risk tolerance should also factor into your decision. If you are a risk-averse manager, you may prefer to wait on quarterback and address other positions early. If you are more willing to take risks, drafting a quarterback in the second round could be a gamble worth taking. Consider the potential reward of securing an elite quarterback versus the potential downside of missing out on a top-tier running back or wide receiver.

Alternative Strategies:

If you are hesitant to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round, there are alternative strategies you can employ to address the quarterback position. One approach is to target a quarterback in the third or fourth round, hoping that a player like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or Justin Herbert falls to you. These quarterbacks offer similar upside to Allen and Jackson, albeit with slightly less rushing potential in some cases. Another strategy is to wait even longer and target a quarterback in the middle rounds who has the potential to outperform their ADP. Players like Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, and Trevor Lawrence often represent solid value in the mid-rounds, providing a balance of floor and upside.

Conclusion:

In the end, the decision of whether to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round is a complex one with no definitive answer. It depends on a confluence of factors, including your league's scoring format, roster requirements, and your personal risk tolerance. While the allure of securing an elite quarterback is undeniable, it's crucial to weigh the opportunity cost and consider alternative strategies. By carefully evaluating your options and understanding the nuances of your league, you can make an informed decision that aligns with your overall draft strategy and maximizes your chances of fantasy football success. Ultimately, trust your gut, do your research, and draft the players you believe will give you the best chance to win a championship.

Is it too early to draft Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the second round? The answer, like most things in fantasy football, is “it depends.” By carefully weighing the pros and cons and considering your league's specific dynamics, you can navigate this complex decision and build a roster that positions you for a successful season.